Iran, Israel, and regime survival

7th Mar 2025 by Shabnam Holliday

On 1 April 2024, the Islamic Republic of Iran’s consulate in Syria was attacked, killing Brigadier General Mohammad Reza Zahedi and other members of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps. Considered ‘an unprecedented escalation by Israel against Iran in Syria’, it was also a shift in Israel’s rules of engagement by ‘directly eliminating Iranian leadership in Syria’ (Haid 2024). While the Islamic Republic accused Israel, ‘Israel neither confirmed nor denied’ the attack (Berg 2024). Nevertheless, the Islamic Republic retaliated on 13 April with ‘Operation True Promise’ involving the ‘first-ever direct strikes launched from Iranian territory onto Israeli soil’ (Grajewski 2024). On 19 April, ‘US officials’ reported that ‘Israel hit Iran with a missile’ on Isfahan (Seddon and Palumbo 2024), presumably a counter-retaliation. There were ‘competing claims about the scale of the attack’ and Iranian state media downplayed its significance (Seddon and Palumbo 2024). 

I argue that this contained escalation between the two regional powers, Iran and Israel, must be seen in a historical context and with an appreciation that domestic and international politics are interconnected. Drawing attention to domestic protests in Iran and Israel shows that the international relations between the two regional powers do not exist in a vacuum. Rather, an escalation is a useful distraction from domestic protests that challenge these governments’ legitimacy: the escalation provides justification for each other’s existence. 

Historical context

The antagonistic relationship between the two regional powers did not start with Hamas’ 7 October attacks. It is part of an ongoing ‘rivalry’ and/or ‘cold war’ dating back to the prevalence of Ayatollah Khomeini’s ideology and the establishment of the Islamic Republic (see Rezaei and Cohen 2014; Holliday 2020). Khomeini constructed an antagonistic frontier between ‘the oppressed’ and ‘the oppressors’, identifying Israel and Zionism as extensions of ‘US hegemony’ as ‘the oppressor’ (Abrahamian, 1993: 47, 132-33). Notably, Israel later sought to establish Iran as a future threat to the West as a whole, and not just to Israel (Parsi 2007: 162-64). In the context of the Syria Conflict, this relationship has intensified, being referred to as a ‘shadow war’ (Gardner 2021). 

Protests in Israel and Iran

Alongside this ‘shadow war’, both regional powers have had to address domestic unrest and international attention critical of  their use of extensive and horrific violence against Iranians by the Islamic Republic, and Palestinians by the Netanyahu government.

The Netanyahu government’s response to 7 October attacks has led to a humanitarian crisis in Gaza. Subsequently, South Africa submitted the ‘Application of the Convention on the Prevention and Punishment of the Crime of Genocide in the Gaza Strip’ to the International Court of Justice (ICJ 2024). According to United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs, by 5 April 2024, there were 33,091 Palestinian fatalities, 1,200 Israeli fatalities in Israel, 255 Israeli fatalities in Gaza, 134 hostages in Gaza, and 75% of Gaza’s population internally displaced (OCHA 2024). Since the 7 October attacks and the subsequent campaign in Gaza, Israel has seen calls for Netanyahu’s resignation (Shtasler 2023), pro-war rallies, and anti-war protests. In March 2024, alongside anti-government speeches, ‘hundreds of protesters in Tel Aviv’ called for ‘ceasefire now’, ‘no more blood spilled’, the release of hostages, and an end to occupation. The Israeli government responded by banning protests (Peleg et al. 2024). The NGO Standing Together (2024) reported that its ‘demonstrations calling for a ceasefire agreement and hostage deal’ have drawn tens of thousands to the streets. 

Protests against Netanyahu are not new. In 2014, Israelis protested against Operation Protective Edge (2014 Gaza War). In 2020, they protested against the Annexation Plan in the West Bank with concerns of apartheid (Magid 2020); against the ‘anti-democratic law’ issued in response to protests; and because of corruption charges (Holmes and Kierszenbaum 2020). In March 2023, ‘Hundreds of thousands of people’ took to the streets ‘over plans to overhaul the judicial system’ (McKernan 2023) because it signalled authoritarianism. These dynamics indicate that the Netanyahu government’s legitimacy is threatened because they question his democratic credentials. In this environment, the existence of an external enemy, namely the Islamic Republic, contributes to justifying Netanyahu’s position.

In Iran, what have come to be known as the ‘Woman, Life, Freedom’ protests and movement have questioned the legitimacy of the Islamic Republic. Triggered by the killing in custody of the Kurdish-Iranian woman, Jina Mahsa Amini, following her arrest for what the Islamic Republic considers ‘improper hejab’, the protests became intersectional and widespread. Unlike previous protests since the 1979 Revolution, there was ‘an explicit desire for a change in the political system with the removal of the Islamic Republic, the absolute rejection of its reform, and a desire to reclaim Iran’ (Holliday 2023). The Islamic Republic’s response has been extensive violence, including executions (CHRI 2022). This violence indicates the Islamic Republic’s need to maintain control through coercion as opposed to consent. Thus, it is in the Islamic Republic’s interest to illustrate the need to combat the ‘oppressor’, namely Zionism, to justify its continued relevance. Netanyahu’s campaign in Gaza provided that scenario, as did the attack on Iran’s consulate in Syria.

Conclusion

By considering domestic protests, it becomes clear that the contained escalation of April 2024 between these two regional powers is not simply about their international relations. Ultimately, it is in Netanyahu’s interest to maintain the Islamic Republic as an ‘enemy’. Similarly, it is in the Islamic Republic’s interest to maintain Israel as the ‘enemy’. This antagonistic relationship contributes to justifying and ensuring regime survival for both regional powers.

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